First Author:   Simon Grant Rice University SGRANT@rice.edu   Economics Department-MS 22, Rice University, P.O. Box 1892 Houston, 77251-1892, United States of America   1-713-348 3332(Phone) 1-713-348 3332(Fax) Second Author: John Quiggin Australian Research Council Senior Fellow, Australian National University John.Quiggin@anu.edu.au