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| Martin L Weitzman |
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| ''GHG targets as insurance against catastrophic'' |
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| A critical issue in climate change economics is the speci
cation of the so-called
damages functionand its interaction with the unknown uncertainty of catastrophic
outcomes. This paper asks how much we might be misled by our economic assessment
of climate change when we employ a conventional quadratic damages function and/or
a thin-tailed probability distribution for extreme temperatures. The paper gives some
numerical examples of the indirect value of various GHG concentration targets as
insurance against catastrophic climate change temperatures and damages. These
numerical examples suggest that we might be underestimating considerably the welfare
losses from uncertainty by using a quadratic damages function and/or a thin-tailed
temperature distribution. In these examples, the primary reason for keeping GHG
levels down is to insure against high-temperature catastrophic climate risks. |
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| Keywords: |
JEL: Q5 - Environmental Economics: General
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| Manuscript Received : Sep 29 2010 | | Manuscript Accepted : Sep 29 2010 |
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