Chien-hsun Chen East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore   East Asian Institute National University of Singapore 469A Bukit Timah Road, Tower Block #06-01 Singapore, 259770 Singapore   eaichen@nus.edu.sg             JEL Areas: E5 : Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General P2 : Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: General