Michael Dotsey Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia   Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Ten Independence Mall Philadelphia, Pa 19106 USA   michael.dotsey@phil.frb.org             JEL Areas: E2 : Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: General (includes Measurement and Data) E6 : Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General