First Author:   Mototsugu Shintani Deaprtment of Economics, Vanderbilt University mototsugu.shintani@vanderbilt.edu         Second Author: Akiko Terada-hagiwara Economics and Research Department, Asian Development Bank ahagiwara@adb.org         Third Author: Tomoyoshi Yabu Faculty of Business and Commerce, Keio University tomoyoshi.yabu@gmail.com