Reginaldo Pinto Nogueira Jr. Ibmec Minas   Rua Rio Grande do Norte, 300 2o andar Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais 30130130 Brazil   reginaldo.nogueira@ibmecmg.br             JEL Areas: E5 : Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General C1 : Econometric and Statistical Methods: General