Edson Z Monte Research Group in Econometrics (GPE), Federal University of Espírito Santo (UFES).   Fernando Ferrari Avenue, 514, Goiabeiras. Vitória, ES 29075-910 Brazil   edson.monte@ufes.br             JEL Areas: E : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics E6 : Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General