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Ertan Oktay and Giray Gozgor
''Estimation of disaggregated import demand functions for Turkey''
( 2013, Vol. 33 No.1 )
This study attempts to estimate disaggregated import demand functions for Turkey, for the period from 1989 to 2012 in quarterly data set. In this context, we examine short-run and long-run disaggregated import demand functions for capital goods, intermediate inputs and consumption goods by using Autoregressive Distributed Lag model and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares. Besides gross domestic product (GDP) and real effective exchange rates; the impacts of seasonality, time trend, the periods of floating exchange regime, and the great global recession are also taken into account in the estimations. The empirical findings indicate that possible deprecation of the Turkish Lira has limited effects on all disaggregated import goods. GDP, as the main determinant of disaggregated import demand, has the biggest impact on capital goods in the short-run and on consumption goods in the long-run. We also check the robustness of our findings by using some proxy variables, such as gross fixed capital formation, exports and domestic credits, and find more or less similar results.
Keywords: disaggregated import demand, external balance of payments, Turkey, the great global recession, autoregressive distributed lag, dynamic ordinary least squares
JEL: F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: General
C5 - Econometric Modeling: General
Manuscript Received : Feb 04 2013 Manuscript Accepted : Mar 04 2013

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