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Leila Ali and Marie Lebreton
''The Fall of Bretton Woods: Which Geography Matters?''
( 2013, Vol. 33 No.2 )
This paper analyses the spatial diffusion of the speculative attacks during the fall of the Bretton Woods System. First, we study the spatial heterogeneity of the relationship between speculative pressures and their determinants via a locally linear framework. Here, relationships were assumed to reflect mainly geographical space. However, mapping the countries in crisis also showed that the spatial diffusion of attacks was not linear. Therefore, we used a neuro-coefficient smooth transition auto-regressive model to investigate more complex interactions between geographical space and crises. Our results suggest that combining geographical and socio-economic spaces is useful for predicting the location of future victims.
Keywords: Spatial Econometrics, Neural Network Models, Speculative Attacks, Contagion.
JEL: C4 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: General
Manuscript Received : Mar 10 2013 Manuscript Accepted : Jun 10 2013

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