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Atsuo Utaka
''Consumer Confidence and the Japanese Economy -Comparison of Pre- and Post-Bubble Period-''
( 2014, Vol. 34 No.2 )
This paper investigates the effect of confidence on the Japanese economy by using vector autoregressions. Especially, I divide the total estimation period into two parts, pre- and post-bubble periods, and analyze the transition of that effect through the ages. It is shown that consumer confidence has a significant effect on GDP. Moreover, that effect becomes larger in a post-bubble period than in a pre-bubble period, which implies that the low level of confidence has worsened the economic condition in the lost (two) decade(s) after the bubble period.
Keywords: consumer confidence, GDP fluctuations
JEL: E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)
E2 - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: General (includes Measurement and Data)
Manuscript Received : May 13 2013 Manuscript Accepted : Jun 01 2014

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