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Kuang-Liang Chang and Ming-Hui Yen
 
''The magnitude and significance of macroeconomic variables in explaining regional housing fluctuations''
( 2014, Vol. 34 No.2 )
 
 
This paper investigates the possible responses of housing returns to macroeconomic and global variables for four special municipalities in Taiwan (Taipei, New Taipei, Taichung and Kaohsiung) over the period 1991Q1 to 2010Q4. Two interesting results have been observed. First, the housing market shows distinct high-volatility and low-volatility cycles for each city due to idiosyncratic characteristics. The frequency of regime switches between high-volatility and low-volatility markets is strongest in Kaohsiung's housing market and is lowest in New Taipei and Taichung. Second, while the growth rate of GDP, aggregate stock return, the growth rate of CPI and aggregate housing return are able to affect regional housing returns, their effects are different in each city.
 
 
Keywords: regional housing returns; regime switching specification; variable impact curve; time-varying transition probability
JEL: C2 - Single Equation Models; Single Variables: General
R1 - General Regional Economics (includes Regional Data)
 
Manuscript Received : Oct 31 2013 Manuscript Accepted : Apr 23 2014

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