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Kim Kaivanto, Eike B. Kroll and Michael Zabinski
''Bias-Trigger Manipulation and Task-Form Understanding in Monty Hall''
( 2014, Vol. 34 No.1 )
Monty Hall is a difficult task which triggers multiple biases. With sophisticated subjects and treatments that reverse and eliminate these triggers, non-rational choice is greatly reduced. Among task-familiar subjects, non-rational choice can can fall to background-error levels. But as our data also show, task-form recognition is necessary but not sufficient for rational choice when the task calls for conditional probability reasoning rather than simple rule-based behavior, as in e.g. 'Switch in Monty Hall.' Task-form understanding, a more stringent requirement, proves to be necessary and sufficient for rational choice in generalized Monty Hall conditional probability reasoning tasks.
Keywords: Monty Hall, task-form understanding, bias triggers, default effect, illusion of control, errors of omission and commission
JEL: D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty: General
C9 - Design of Experiments: General
Manuscript Received : Dec 28 2013 Manuscript Accepted : Jan 24 2014

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