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Juan Gabriel Brida, Bibiana Lanzilotta and Fiorella Pizzolon
''Dynamic relationship between tourism and economic growth in MERCOSUR countries: a nonlinear approach based on asymmetric time series models''
( 2016, Vol. 36 No.2 )
Since 1995 the four MERCOSUR countries have gone through the path of economic integration; however, they have dissimilar situations in terms of economic growth and, particularly, in the degree of development of the tourism sector. Brida et al. (2015) analyzed the validity of the Tourism Led Growth Hypothesis (TLGH) for these countries and demonstrated that the relationship between tourism and economic growth is not linear for Argentina and Brazil. However, the authors did not specify the format of the nonlinearity. The present research moves in that direction and explores about the identity of these nonlinearities. The research is based on the methodology which combines the concepts of cointegration with the asymmetric adjustment thresholds. The results allow explaining the nonlinearity in the case of Brazil, which is modeled on the dynamics of the adjustment from transitory situations of disequilibrium between tourism and growth. It is shown that an M-TAR adjustment mechanism is which best describes this behavior.
Keywords: tourism led-growth hypothesis; cointegration and thresholds adjustment; M-TAR models; MERCOSUR
JEL: C4 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
L8 - Industry Studies: Services: General
Manuscript Received : Mar 14 2016 Manuscript Accepted : May 18 2016

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