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Balaji Bathmanaban, Raja Sethu Durai S and Ramachandran M
''The relationship between Output Uncertainty and Economic Growth-Evidence from India''
( 2017, Vol. 37 No.4 )
This study examines the causal nexus between output growth and its uncertainty for India using monthly time series data for the period from April 1980 to April 2011. In this regard, both simultaneous equation method and two-step procedure methods are estimated. In two-step procedure method, conventional Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models and Stochastic Volatility (SV) models are used to measure output uncertainty. The empirical evidence suggests for both measures of uncertainty, there exists a unidirectional causality from output growth to its uncertainty with a positive sign. The results for both pre and post economic reform period in India are also same and identical.
Keywords: output growth, output growth uncertainty, GARCH models and Stochastic Volatility models.
JEL: E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General
E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)
Manuscript Received : Jul 26 2016 Manuscript Accepted : Nov 19 2017

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