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Jean-Pascal Bassino, Celine Gimet and Stephane Quefelec
''Climate and output variability in the Euro-Mediterranean region, 1950-2000''
( 2018, Vol. 38 No.4 )
Despite the large literature on the link between climate evolution and country economic performance, the specific question of the effects of climatic changes via the agricultural sector broken down by annual seasons in the Euro-Mediterranean region, which is considered as a hotspot of climate change, remains largely understudied. This paper investigates both the incidences of seasonal rainfall and temperature variations on GDP from an historical perspective and the impact of climate anomalies on cereal output. Our results point to the fact that climate shocks affect significantly the GDP of Euro-Mediterranean countries specialized in the agricultural production, in particular during winter and spring. In these seasons, the impacts of climate anomalies are strong on cereal output in southern and eastern Mediterranean countries. These results underline the fact that agriculture is one of the main channels of the influence of climate change on GDP in this region. Crop diversification could be part of the response for enhancing resilience of the entire economy while preserving food security objectives.
Keywords: Cereals, climate anomalies, generalized method of moments (GMM), GDP, rainfall, temperatures.
JEL: N1 - Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Growth and Fluctuations: General, International, or Comparative
C2 - Single Equation Models; Single Variables: General
Manuscript Received : Sep 07 2017 Manuscript Accepted : Oct 10 2018

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