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Barış Soybilgen, Huseyin Kaya and Dincer Dedeoglu
 
''Evaluating the effect of geopolitical risks on the growth rates of emerging countries''
( 2019, Vol. 39 No.1 )
 
 
In this study, we analyze the relationship between geopolitical risks and growth using annual panel data from 18 emerging countries for the period from 1986 to 2016. For a robustness check, we use panel data with 5-year intervals. The news-based indices of Caldara and Iacoviello (2018) were used as a proxy for geopolitical risks. Our results show that the effect of geopolitical risks on growth rates is negative and significant. A 10 point increase in the geopolitical risk index causes a 0.2–0.4% decline in the GDP growth rate.
 
 
Keywords: Geopolitical Risk, Growth, Emerging Markets, Panel Data.
JEL: O1 - Economic Development: General
O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General
 
Manuscript Received : Oct 01 2018 Manuscript Accepted : Mar 28 2019

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