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| Barış Soybilgen, Huseyin Kaya and Dincer Dedeoglu |
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| ''Evaluating the effect of geopolitical risks on the growth rates of emerging countries'' |
| ( 2019, Vol. 39 No.1 ) |
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| In this study, we analyze the relationship between geopolitical risks and growth using annual panel data from 18 emerging countries for the period from 1986 to 2016. For a robustness check, we use panel data with 5-year intervals. The news-based indices of Caldara and Iacoviello (2018) were used as a proxy for geopolitical risks. Our results show that the effect of geopolitical risks on growth rates is negative and significant. A 10 point increase in the geopolitical risk index causes a 0.2–0.4% decline in the GDP growth rate.
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| Keywords: Geopolitical Risk, Growth, Emerging Markets, Panel Data.
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JEL: O1 - Economic Development: General
O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General |
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| Manuscript Received : Oct 01 2018 | | Manuscript Accepted : Mar 28 2019 |
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