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M Aykut Attar
''Productivity growth, malthus delusion, and unified growth theory''
( 2020, Vol. 40 No.2 )
This short paper studies a simple Malthusian model with perpetually growing productivity. The model is calibrated to match the British growth record from 1270 to 1650, and, then, to 1870. Results are as follow: (i) Both the Black Death and perpetually growing productivity have explanatory power for preindustrial prosperity. (ii) For the extended Malthusian model to match the data from 1270 to the mid-17th century, the production technology must be extremely labor intensive. (iii) The model cannot capture the growth acceleration after the mid-17th century even with unrealistic parameter values. These results imply that the British economy was in a distinct Post-Malthusian regime in the post-1650 period, and they substantiate the strong relevance of Unified Growth Theory to the British economic development over the very long run.
Keywords: Malthus, productivity growth, population, Post-Malthusian Regime, Unified Growth Theory
JEL: O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General
N1 - Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Growth and Fluctuations: General, International, or Comparative
Manuscript Received : Sep 29 2019 Manuscript Accepted : Apr 29 2020

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