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Petar Sorić
''“Normal” growth of the Chinese economy: new metrics based on consumer confidence data''
( 2020, Vol. 40 No.2 )
The past three decades of remarkable Chinese economic development have triggered a noteworthy poverty reduction and the empowerment of Chinese consumers. However, the existing literature has been quite silent on Chinese consumer sentiment and the way consumers perceive their economy as a whole. We build on that by focusing on consumer confidence data to propose an indicator of normal long-term growth for the Chinese economy. We note a significant decoupling of the stated indicator and the official GDP figures after the global financial crisis, implying that the Chinese economy is on a sub-optimal trajectory. Our findings support the middle-income trap hypothesis for the Chinese economy.
Keywords: Consumer confidence, global financial crisis, China, normal growth, middle-income trap
JEL: E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)
E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General
Manuscript Received : Feb 28 2020 Manuscript Accepted : Jun 18 2020

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