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Andreas Humpe and David McMillan
''The Covid-19 stock market puzzle and money supply in the US''
( 2020, Vol. 40 No.4 )
In the first five months of 2020 industrial production in the US fell 15% due to the Covid-19 shut down. At the same time the S&P500 stock market index first dropped by 30% and then recovered to almost pre-crisis levels. This seems puzzling as the most severe economic recession in nearly a century unfolds. However, central banks have supported financial markets with unprecedented money supply and this might explain the observed stock market resilience. Within a cointegration framework, we estimate the relation between macroeconomic variables and the US stock market. Results show that approximately half of the stock market recovery can be attributed to the increase in money supply.
Keywords: Covid-19, Money Supply, Cointegration, Stock Market, Macroeconomy, US
C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General
Manuscript Received : Aug 11 2020 Manuscript Accepted : Nov 25 2020

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