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Jean-François Verne
''Estimating the trajectories of the Okun's coefficient and NAIRU with the rolling regression method: Evidence from Lebanon''
( 2024, Vol. 44 No.1 )
We use the rolling regression method to estimate the Okun relationship and the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) in Lebanon between 1991 and 2021.We found that a stagflation phenomenon exists, and the NAIRU is high. It turns out that the Okun coefficient is low and unstable. In addition, we show that an increase in the unemployment rate above the NAIRU entails a decrease in the GDP growth rate (under the potential GDP growth rate) and increases the inflation rate.
JEL: E2 - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: General (includes Measurement and Data)
O5 - Economywide Country Studies: General
Manuscript Received : Aug 03 2023 Manuscript Accepted : Mar 30 2024

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