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| Bahar Ulupinar and Isa Camyar |
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| ''Geopolitics and investment cycles in the United States'' |
| ( 2025, Vol. 45 No.2 ) |
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| This study explores the relationship between geopolitical crises and investment cycles in the United States. Using a novel dataset on geopolitical crises over the period of 1960 to 2019, we find that the dimensionality of geopolitical crises (duration, intensity and scope) and the temporal nature of their impact (short-run versus long-run) need to be properly considered when studying the implications of these crises for investment. Our analysis also suggests that geopolitical crises can boost investment spending in the U.S. economy if the United States is not directly involved in them. |
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| Keywords: Geopolitical Crisis, Policy Uncertainty, Investment, the United States |
JEL: F5 - International Relations and International Political Economy: General
E2 - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: General (includes Measurement and Data) |
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| Manuscript Received : Mar 20 2025 | | Manuscript Accepted : Jun 30 2025 |
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