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| Bilal El Rafhi |
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| ''Income mobility and support for the welfare state: Panel evidence from Germany'' |
| ( 2026, Vol. 0 No.0 ) |
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| Previous studies on preferences for state intervention have primarily relied on cross-sectional designs, which are limited in their ability to account for time-invariant unobservables. Using panel data from the 1997–2002 German SOEP, we estimate first-difference models to assess whether medium-term income changes are associated with changes in support for public versus private provision across five domains of financial security. A one-log-point rise in real household income is associated with a decline in support for state involvement in family, unemployment, sickness, old-age, and long-term care provision by 7-11% of a scale point. Two patterns of heterogeneity emerge: (i) individuals in the bottom or top 1997 income quintile react almost twice as strongly as those in the middle ; (ii) the absolute response to income gains exceeds that to losses (p < 0.01). Gender, cohort, region, initial attitudes and baseline ideology do not significantly alter the slope. Results hold across alternative codings, placebo tests, and controls for employment transitions. |
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| Keywords: Welfare-state preferences, Income mobility, Redistribution, Panel data; Germany. |
JEL: H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General
D3 - Distribution: General |
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| Manuscript Received : Jul 21 2025 | | Manuscript Accepted : Oct 10 2026 |
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