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| Shinya Sugiura |
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| ''Axiomatic characterizations of belief updating under ambiguity'' |
| ( 2026, Vol. 0 No.0 ) |
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| We characterize three rules for updating a convex capacity at the level of beliefs, with no reference to acts or preferences: the Fagin-Halpern, maximum likelihood, and Dempster-Shafer rules. Two axioms, Caution and Unanimity, force the posterior to equal the lower envelope of the Bayesian updates of a set of admissible priors; the choice of that set selects the rule. |
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| Keywords: Updating, Convex capacities, Fagin–Halpern rule, Maximum likelihood rule, Dempster–Shafer rule |
JEL: D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty: General
D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making: General |
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| Manuscript Received : May 31 2026 | | Manuscript Accepted : Oct 10 2026 |
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