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Franklin Mixon, Jr., Steven Caudill and Christopher Duquette
''The impact of money on elections: evidence from open seat races in the United States House of Representatives, 1990-2004''
( 2008, Vol. 4 No.2 )
A binary win/loss model is constructed and estimated on the results from 1990-2004 contests for open U.S. House seats. The results indicate that election outcomes are highly sensitive to the major-party candidates' campaign spending ratios, and increases in spending ratios are shown to translate into non-trivial increases the candidate''s probability of winning, a result that holds for both Republicans and Democrats. The payoff to high levels of spending explains why it''s so attractive for candidates to outspend their opponents by large margins.
Keywords: public choice
JEL: D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making: General
H3 - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: General
Manuscript Received : Feb 11 2008 Manuscript Accepted : Feb 12 2008

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