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Jens Boysen-Hogrefe
''A note on predicting recessions in the euro area using real M1''
( 2012, Vol. 32 No.2 )
Real M1 is a renowned leading indicator used to forecast real economic activity. This note provides evidence that real M1 is also a suitable recession indicator that gave a clear and early signal for the Great Recession as long as changes in money demand are controlled for.
Keywords: Predicting recessions; Probit; narrow money; real M1; euro area
JEL: E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)
C5 - Econometric Modeling: General
Manuscript Received : Oct 13 2011 Manuscript Accepted : Apr 26 2012

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