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| Jens Boysen-Hogrefe |
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| ''A note on predicting recessions in the euro area using
real M1'' |
| ( 2012, Vol. 32 No.2 ) |
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| Real M1 is a renowned leading indicator used to forecast real economic activity. This note
provides evidence that real M1 is also a suitable recession indicator that gave a clear and early
signal for the Great Recession as long as changes in money demand are controlled for. |
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| Keywords: Predicting recessions; Probit; narrow money; real M1; euro area |
JEL: E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)
C5 - Econometric Modeling: General |
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| Manuscript Received : Oct 13 2011 | | Manuscript Accepted : Apr 26 2012 |
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