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Mihai Mutascu and Alexandre Sokic
''Revisiting the oil price and expected inflation in the U.S. - a wavelet approach''
( 2022, Vol. 42 No.2 )
The paper revisits the 'oil price - expected inflation' nexus in the U.S. by using as a novelty the wavelet. The study covers 08/08/2005-14/04/2022. The main findings show that in the 'smooth' economic periods, the oil price is an important 'signal' for expected inflation on long-run. Otherwise, expected inflation influences the oil price on medium-run, during financial crises and major monetary adjustments. Pandemic or war crises have no notable implications on the 'oil price - expected inflation' nexus, other factors being more prominent.
Keywords: Oil price; expected inflation, shocks; wavelet; U.S.
JEL: E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)
C4 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
Manuscript Received : May 05 2022 Manuscript Accepted : Jun 30 2022

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