First Author:   Yukinobu Kitamura Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University kitamura@ier.hit-u.ac.jp   2-1, Naka Kunitachi, 186-8603, Japan   81-42-580-8394(Phone) 81-42-580-8394(Fax) http://www.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/~kitamura/ Second Author: Hiroshi Fujiki Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan hiroshi.fujiki@boj.or.jp   2-1-1, Hongoku-Cho, Nihonbashi, Chuo-Ku, 103-8660, Japan   81-3-3279-1111(Phone) 81-3-3510-1265(Fax) http://www.boj.or.jp/