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Adonias Costa Filho
''Trend inflation in Brazil''
( 2023, Vol. 43 No.2 )
This paper estimates trend inflation for Brazil, using a model of unobserved components and stochastic volatility. The model allows a flexible dynamics between trend inflation and survey inflation expectations. Estimated trend inflation has been on a downward trend since 2017, and has not been significantly affected by the surge in inflation following the Covid-19 outbreak.
Keywords: Unobserved components model; trend inflation; inflation expectations.
JEL: E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)
Description of Supplemental Material:
Manuscript Received : Jan 17 2023 Manuscript Accepted : Jun 30 2023

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