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Georg Stadtmann, Christian Pierdzioch and Jan Ruelke
''Scattered Fiscal Forecasts''
( 2011, Vol. 31 No.3 )
The banking debacle of 2007/2008 and the Greek sovereign debt crisis have witnessed that forecasts of government balances play a major role for how participants in financial markets assess the sustainability of government budget deficits. But how do forecasters form their government-balance forecasts? Do forecasters deliver unbiased forecasts? Our results imply that they do not. On the contrary, using more than 100,000 forecasts of government balances for 38 countries we report strong evidence of forecaster anti-herding, i.e. forecaster scatter their projections around the consensus forecast.
Keywords: Government balance, Survey data, Forecasting
JEL: E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General
D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty: General
Manuscript Received : May 26 2011 Manuscript Accepted : Sep 08 2011

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