All Rights Reserved
AccessEcon LLC 2006, 2008.
Powered by MinhViet JSC
ralph lauren polo

Amit Ghosh
''Is there an S-curve relationship between U.S. trade balance and terms of trade? An analysis across industries and countries''
( 2012, Vol. 32 No.1 )
A key relationship in international economics is that between trade flows and exchange rates. This paper examines the empirical evidence of S-curve relationship between U.S. trade balance and terms of trade both at the aggregated and disaggregated level from 1989Q1 to 2010Q4. I find evidence of an S-curve for U.S. total trade in all goods and services with the rest of the world, as well as that for overall manufacturing and non-manufacturing categories. I further examine the top 20 industries at the SITC 3-digit level, and find evidence of an S-curve in 15 industries. Finally, the relationship is explored with the major trading partners in each of these twenty industries, also yielding positive evidence for several nations.
Keywords: S-curve, trade balance, terms-of-trade, real exchange rates
JEL: F3 - International Finance: General
F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: General
Manuscript Received : Jan 10 2012 Manuscript Accepted : Jan 23 2012

  This abstract has been downloaded 1547 times                The Full PDF of this paper has been downloaded 149391 times