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Aviral Kumar Tiwari, Claudiu T Albulescu and Phouphet Kyophilavong
''A comparison of different forecasting models of the international trade in India''
( 2014, Vol. 34 No.1 )
We assess the out-of-sample forecasting performance of eight models on Indian real exports and imports. The results, in large part show only a slight increase or no clear increase in India's international trade. However, the results are very robust when comparing the predictions in terms of exports and imports. In both the cases, the ARIMA and ETS models perform better in terms of the accuracy fit.
Keywords: Trade, Forecasting, India, Exponential smoothing, Holt–Winters, Box–Jenkins
JEL: F1 - Trade: General
C5 - Econometric Modeling: General
Manuscript Received : Jan 09 2014 Manuscript Accepted : Mar 04 2014

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