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Julia Bersch and Tara M. Sinclair
''Statistical versus economic output gap measures: evidence from Mongolia''
( 2014, Vol. 34 No.3 )
This paper compares the output gap estimates based on a number of different methods. We take advantage of the unique properties of the Mongolian economy in order to evaluate the different approaches. We find that an economic measure derived from a Blanchard and Quah-type joint model of output and inflation provides a more robust estimate of the output gap than the traditional statistical decompositions.
Keywords: Blanchard-Quah Decomposition, Nonmineral GDP, Hodrick-Prescott Filter, Christiano-Fitzgerald Filter
JEL: E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)
C2 - Single Equation Models; Single Variables: General
Manuscript Received : Jan 12 2014 Manuscript Accepted : Aug 20 2014

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