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António Afonso and Jorge Silva
''The track record of fiscal forecasting in the EU''
( 2015, Vol. 35 No.2 )
We study the deviations between the budget balance ratio forecasts and outcomes in the European Commission semi-annual vintage forecasts for the period 1998-2011. Our main conclusions are: i) there is evidence that the deviations of real GDP and inflation can explain the deviations of the budget balance ratio; ii) total investment growth deviations are also important; iii) unemployment rate deviations are not statistically relevant; iv) the fiscal rule index is not a statistically significant determinant of the budget forecast deviations; iv) higher than forecasted ratios of expenditure, revenue and debt for the EU are relevant; v) and expenditure-to-GDP deviations were larger than the revenue-to-GDP ones for the EU.
Keywords: macro forecasts, fiscal forecasts, EU
JEL: E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General
H6 - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General
Manuscript Received : Nov 26 2014 Manuscript Accepted : Jun 01 2015

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