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Damilola Felix Arawomo
''Survival of Nigeria's Exports in Her Biggest Markets: Continuous and Discrete Time Estimations''
( 2015, Vol. 35 No.3 )
Trade duration and its determinants have been largely overlooked in both theoretical and empirical literature, especially in the developing countries. It is in view of this, that this paper examined extent and drivers of export survival of Nigeria's products in her biggest markets (United State, Germany, France, China, and Japan). While the non-parametric Kaplan-Meier estimator was used to examine the extent of Nigeria's export survival in her major destinations, the Cox proportional hazards model and Prentice-Gloeckler were compared in estimating the determinants of survival. Results show that the survival rate of Nigeria's export has been low. 49.4% of Nigeria's export survives for more than one year, 37.8% survives for up to 10 years, and only 4.5% survives a 42 years period. As regards the determinants of export survival, language, initial export value, and exchange rate are the factors that promote the survival of Nigeria's export, while distance, GDP per capita, colonial ties, total export, competition, and tariff discourages it.
Keywords: Export Survival, Export Hazard, Kaplan-Meier estimator, Cox proportional hazard, Prentice-Gloeckler
JEL: F1 - Trade: General
O1 - Economic Development: General
Manuscript Received : Jun 06 2015 Manuscript Accepted : Aug 12 2015

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