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Hulya Saygili and Kemal Türkcan
''Trade integration and export survival: Evidence from Turkish machinery products''
( 2017, Vol. 37 No.3 )
This paper uses survival analysis to investigate the effects of economic integration agreements on export duration using highly disaggregated machinery exports data from Turkey for the 1998-2013 period. Results obtained from the descriptive statistical analysis suggest that the duration of Turkey's machinery exports is remarkably short with a median duration of merely one year. In addition, we find that the mean and median duration of exports vary substantially across different types of trade agreements. Based on discrete-time duration models, we show that an economic integration agreement has a dual effect on the stability of export relationships: it increases the survival of export relationships which had already started before the agreement took place but reduces the survival of those that start afterwards. Finally, we also report that the effects differ depending on the type of trade agreements.
Keywords: Export duration, Survival analysis, Economic integration agreements
JEL: F1 - Trade: General
C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General
Manuscript Received : Apr 12 2017 Manuscript Accepted : Aug 31 2017

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