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Seung Hoon Lee and Yong Suk Lee
''Political Influence and Trade Uncertainty: Evidence from Sanction Threats and Impositions''
( 2018, Vol. 38 No.1 )
This paper examines how uncertainty arising from sanction threats impacts international trade. By separately examining the threat stages of sanctions to the actual imposition of sanctions, we distinguish the impact of political uncertainty on trade from that of actual trade disruption. We find that US sanction threats significantly reduce US bilateral trade with target countries. The effect is larger when the target is a nondemocratic state and when sanctions are politically motivated.
Keywords: Sanctions, Sanction Threats, Trade, Uncertainty
JEL: F5 - International Relations and International Political Economy: General
F1 - Trade: General
Manuscript Received : Jan 15 2018 Manuscript Accepted : Feb 27 2018

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