First Author:   Tara M. Sinclair George Washington University tsinc@gwu.edu   Monroe Hall #340, 2115 G Street NW Washington, 20052, USA   202-994-7988(Phone) 202-994-7988(Fax) http://home.gwu.edu/~tsinc/ Second Author: Julia Bersch International Monetary Fund JBersch@imf.org