Miguel St. Aubyn ISEG, Technical University of Lisbon   ISEG - Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão Rua Miguel Lupi, 20 Lisbon, P-1249-078 Portugal   mstaubyn@iseg.utl.pt   http://www.iseg.utl.pt/~mstaubyn           JEL Areas: E6 : Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General C5 : Econometric Modeling: General