Ibrahim ethem Guney Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey   TCMB Idare Merkezi İstiklal Caddesi No.10 Ulus/Altindag Ankara, 06050 Turkey   ethem.guney@tcmb.gov.tr             JEL Areas: E3 : Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) C5 : Econometric Modeling: General