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Ivan Korolev
 
''Where did it all go wrong for Russia in the 21st Century?''
( 2025, Vol. 45 No.3 )
 
 
This paper uses the synthetic control method to predict how Russia could have developed under different scenarios in the 21st century. I construct the counterfactual for Russia starting in 2008, when Vladimir Putin's first tenure as president ended; starting in 2012, when Putin became president again; and starting in 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and the Donbas War began. I find that Russia's GDP per capita growth path did not change after the presidential changes of 2008 or 2012; however, after the annexation of Crimea and the start of the Donbas War, the actual GDP per capita lagged behind the counterfactual one, with the gap between them reaching about 20% by 2019.
 
 
Keywords: synthetic control method, Russia's economy, Russo-Ukrainian War
JEL: N4 - Economic History: Government, War, Law, and Regulation: General, International, or Comparative
O1 - Economic Development: General
 
Manuscript Received : Apr 12 2024 Manuscript Accepted : Sep 30 2025

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