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Ivan Korolev |
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''Where did it all go wrong for Russia in the 21st Century?'' |
( 2025, Vol. 45 No.3 ) |
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This paper uses the synthetic control method to predict how Russia could have developed under different scenarios in the 21st century. I construct the counterfactual for Russia starting in 2008, when Vladimir Putin's first tenure as president ended; starting in 2012, when Putin became president again; and starting in 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and the Donbas War began. I find that Russia's GDP per capita growth path did not change after the presidential changes of 2008 or 2012; however, after the annexation of Crimea and the start of the Donbas War, the actual GDP per capita lagged behind the counterfactual one, with the gap between them reaching about 20% by 2019. |
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Keywords: synthetic control method, Russia's economy, Russo-Ukrainian War |
JEL: N4 - Economic History: Government, War, Law, and Regulation: General, International, or Comparative O1 - Economic Development: General |
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Manuscript Received : Apr 12 2024 | | Manuscript Accepted : Sep 30 2025 |
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