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| Necati Altemur, Ibrahim Halil Ekşi, William Ginn and Jamel Saadaoui |
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| ''Effect of geopolitical and environmental disruptions on maritime trade security'' |
| ( 2025, Vol. 45 No.2 ) |
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| This study examines the impact of global trade disruptions using a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, focusing on the Red Sea Crisis, which has disrupted key maritime ports including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Suez Canal and the Cape of Good Hope, and the severe drought constraining traffic through the Panama Canal. By analyzing cargo ship transit data before, during, and after these events, the study quantifies the effects of both geopolitical and environmental disruptions on global trade dynamics. The findings reveal displacement and increased volatility in trade patterns, highlighting the far-reaching impacts of such crises on international commerce. These results emphasize the need for geopolitical stability and environmental resilience in key trade routes, a conclusion that is also relevant for policymakers. |
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| Keywords: Maritime Trade Security, ARFIMA-GARCH models, Red Sea Conflict, Drought. |
JEL: F5 - International Relations and International Political Economy: General
R4 - Transportation Systems: General |
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| Manuscript Received : Sep 12 2024 | | Manuscript Accepted : Jun 30 2025 |
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