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| Enrico C. Mira, Wilfredo L. Maldonado and Octávio A. F. Tourinho |
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| ''Testing for bubbles in the Brazilian commercial real estate market'' |
| ( 2025, Vol. 0 No.0 ) |
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| This paper examines the dynamics of commercial real estate prices in Brazil using a monthly series of offer prices from 2012 to 2024 for major Brazilian cities and the whole country. We analyze the price-to-rent ratio and test for the presence of explosive, periodically collapsing, multiple, and intrinsic bubbles using data from the FIPEZAP survey provided by the Institute of Economic Research Foundation (FIPE). Our findings show no evidence of explosive or intrinsic bubbles in any of the series. However, we identify evidence of multiple and recurrent bubbles in some cities, along with instances of overlap between them. These findings suggest the potential influence of common factors that drive their occurrences. |
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| Keywords: Commercial real estate, Speculative bubbles, Brazilian empirical analysis |
JEL: C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General
G1 - General Financial Markets |
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| Manuscript Received : Jan 16 2025 | | Manuscript Accepted : Oct 16 2025 |
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