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| Adonias Costa Filho |
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| ''The role of breakevens in trend inflation in Brazil'' |
| ( 2025, Vol. 45 No.2 ) |
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| This paper obtains estimates of trend inflation and its stochastic volatility for Brazil, through models that incorporate information from breakeven inflation rates and their monthly volatility. Periods with high and low inflation expectations uncertainty are identified and compared to measures of forecast disagreement from survey expectations. |
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| Keywords: Unobserved components model, trend inflation, inflation
expectations. |
JEL: E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General
E4 - Money and Interest Rates: General |
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| Manuscript Received : Feb 09 2025 | | Manuscript Accepted : Jun 30 2025 |
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