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| Júlio Fernando Costa Santos, Yasmim Dalila Barbant and Alexandre Ottoni Teatini Salles |
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| ''Financial side over the real side: Effects in the Brazilian economy at last decade using hierarchical BVAR approach'' |
| ( 2026, Vol. 0 No.0 ) |
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| We estimate a hierarchical Bayesian VAR (BVAR) for Brazil covering 2015–2024 to examine how financial conditions—credit, household indebtedness, FDI, bank lending rates, and default rates—propagate to real activity—unemployment, investment, and industrial capacity utilization. Impulse-response evidence indicates transmission channels, especially credit and balance-sheet effects, that extend beyond the conventional interest-rate channel emphasized in standard monetary-policy analysis. |
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| Keywords: Monetary Policy, Credit Supply, Debt, Default Rate, BVAR |
JEL: E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General
E2 - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: General (includes Measurement and Data) |
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| Manuscript Received : May 28 2025 | | Manuscript Accepted : Jan 06 2026 |
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