Quoc hung Nguyen Institute of Developing Economies, Japan   3-2-2 Wakaba, Mihama-ku Chiba-shi, Chiba 261-8545 Japan   nguyen@ide.go.jp             JEL Areas: E3 : Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) F4 : Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: General