First Author:   Octavio Fernández-Amador World Trade Institute, University of Bern octavio.fernandez@wti.org   Hallerstrasse 6 Bern, 3012, Switzerland       Second Author: Martin Gächter Foreign Research Division, Oesterreichische Nationalbank martin.gaechter@oenb.at         Third Author: Friedrich Sindermann Parliamentary Budget Office, National Council of Austria friedrich.sindermann@parlament.gv.at